The end of the long, gray time; economics of crime, tell me about yourself, and more!
RWL #342
Happy Wednesday from the University of New Hampshire! Classes are officially over for the semester! Woot-woot! All I have left are two finals to administer and grade. Hopefully by Wednesday of next week I will be all done and officially on summer break.
The tulips are past their prime and won’t be with us much longer, but just this week the leaves on the trees have begun to unfurl, and I have enjoyed sitting in my kitchen and appreciating the filtered light through the window. The long, gray time, as I call it, has finally passed. I am overdue for an appointment with the river. I’m hoping I’ll be able to get out in the kayak soon - maybe next week when the work is done.
As usual, willing good for all of you!
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Read
What: City Journal, Invest in More Cops: A Lesson from Europe
https://www.city-journal.org/article/invest-in-more-cops
Why: I spent some time studying the economics of crime during my PhD program. Early literature on the subject proposed that there are two ways of deterring crime, and criminal justice policy balances these two forms of deterrence. The deterrence comes from the likelihood of getting caught, and the severity of the punishment if caught. The article above notes:
Europe spends five times as much of its GDP on policing as on prisons. America, meantime, spends a mere 1.5 times as much on policing as on prisons. As a result, Europe has more than twice the total number of police officers as the U.S., despite only having 35 percent more residents.
So Europe focuses on catching criminals but not much on punishing them; the US doesn’t emphasize catching the criminals, but severely punishes the ones it does catch.
The math is relatively simple. You use the probability of getting caught times the punishment to get the expected value of the punishment. For example, if you have a 10% chance of getting caught, and if you get caught, you will spend 10 years in jail, the expected value is
E(V) = 10% x 10 years = 1 year
So statistically, the criminal knows if they commit the crime, the cost will be 1 year in jail on average.
Society can increase the expected value E(V) by raising either the probability of getting caught or the severity of the punishment.
You can double the E(V) by either doubling the probability or the number of years in prison if caught.
E(V) = 20% x 10 years = 2 years (this is the European approach)
Is statistically the same as
E(V) = 10% x 20 years = 2 years (this is the US approach)
Criminals, if they have statistical intuition, will see this as the same.
As it turns out from recent research, criminals do not see this as the same. The European approach of increasing the probability of being caught is actually more effective at deterring crime than the US approach of ratcheting up the punishment. People who commit crimes tend to be very short-sighted and they tend to not value the future very much - they are big on YOLO, and not much on 401Ks. Long prison sentences may make us feel good, but the evidence that they deter crime is limited. The evidence instead points toward a more European policy of higher rates of detection and conviction, with shorter sentences as being more effective for deterrence.
Check out the article!
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What: Slow Boring, The criminal justice system doesn’t do enough to make us safe
Why: I am just going to say, see above. This article is complementary to the one above. It’s actually a bit more in depth.
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Watch
What: Christine vs. Work, How to Answer the Question, “Tell Me About Yourself” (9 min)
Why: This is a great video explaining how to answer the interview question, “Tell me about yourself.” They explain how this seemingly innocuous question can be totally blown, but really calls for a specific answer. Specific to you, that is. ‘Cause they do want to know about you.
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Listen
What: Business Breakdowns, MTN Group - Connecting Africa (60 min)
Why: We take banking and the transactions done through banking for granted in the US. In many countries the banking sector doesn’t exist or only exists for the privileged. Mobile phone operators provide a substitute for banking in many of those countries. This is a great discussion about how MTN is not only providing connectivity, but financial services. From the description:
MTN is the largest mobile network operator in Africa and one of the 10 largest in the world. It has over 270 million subscribers, operates in 20 different markets, and is also one of the largest FinTech’s in the continent... We unpack their mobile money business in some detail, contrast the development of Telcos in Africa with what we’ve experienced in the US, and explore the competitive dynamics of operating in Africa.
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What: The Journal, One Hollywood Writer on the Industry’s ‘Dire’ Situation (22 min)
Why: Hollywood is being disrupted by streaming. Writers are finding that their engagements are shorter and less lucrative. That’s what happens when an industry gets disrupted. So I don’t have a lot of sympathy for union action that is trying to hold back the inevitable. What is interesting in the pod, if you can get past the airing of grievances, is the forces of disruption. Worth a listen to start to think about the future of entertainment production.