RWL #293
Ukraine and Wild Problems
Greetings from the University of New Hampshire! Image above is from the Lamprey River in Newmarket, the town just south of Durham (where UNH is located). I hadn’t been out on the Lamprey since New Year’s Eve, so it was great to go back, especially since I didn’t have to wear a wetsuit. It’s not technically fall yet, but this is my favorite time of the year up here. Temps are reasonable, the days are still long enough, and everything is still lush.
M students held a bake sale at the Lee Circle Market Basket. I was going to say, head on over, but I’m afraid they are done as I put the final touches on this newsletter. I even provided some M&M sugar cookies I baked last night, which sadly you missed.
Two Topics I want to highlight this week: Ukraine, and Russ Roberts’ new book Wild Problems.
Ukraine
The news this week from Ukraine is so exciting. I am so thrilled to see them routing the Russians. I pray they can keep up their momentum. I’m including some links below that provide analysis of the current situation. These will clearly be dated in short order, but it gives me great hope for them. The fight in Ukraine is about more than just one smallish, former Soviet republic. I do think we will look back in 10 years and see this as a crucial moment in modern history. Putin, thinking he would reverse the fortunes of his country, has instead revealed the effects of the political rot has had on his country’s institutions, especially the military. From a strategic perspective, I think Russia is largely done. I think in the near future they are going to have to choose a side in the coming realignment - they will either become a vassal state to China, or they will have to realign and seek to liberalize (as Ukraine has) and become part of the West. I’m hopeful for the latter, but I won’t be surprised if it is the former. The former will be a tragedy for the Russian people and for the world. I think, if I am right, the Chinese Communist Party knows this, too, and that might make the fight over the bones of Russia ugly. I could be completely wrong on this, and I wouldn’t of had these thoughts if Russia had not invaded Ukraine.
I have an excellent video from Peter Zaihan in Watch and an excellent podcast from the Good Fellows featuring the historian Niall Ferguson discussing the implications.
Wild Problems
I put a link to an interview with Russ Roberts about his new book Wild Problems in last week’s RWL. I received my copy of the book early this week and read it in three sittings. I recommend it to you. It’s an easy read - in the sense that Roberts writes very clearly and succinctly - but he gets at really important issues. The book’s main message is about flourishing, and his prescriptions for flourishing are very close to my own Meaning = Connection x Competence x Contribution (see my essay in RWL #291).
He says in the book, about half way through:
And most of us care about more than just having a good time. We would like to find purpose and meaning. We would like to do the right thing. We would like to belong. We want a life well lived. We want to flourish.
That, I think, is exactly right. A life worth living is one where we flourish and become the person we should become.
The main theme of the book is that the really important decisions in life, the ones that lead to flourishing, cannot be solved using data and economic calculus. That is odd, because Roberts is a Chicago trained economist, where that is exactly how they approach economics. Roberts admits he has drifted from that point of view and has arrived at the conclusion that while those tools are useful for many things, the big questions like, should I get married? Should I have children? What should I do for a career? require something other than economic calculus.
I think Roberts is a conservative (small “c”), though I think he identifies as something of a classical liberal (like me). I say he’s a conservative because he believes that we find meaning in the rituals of tradition. He is an observant Jew and often talks about rituals such as no work on the Sabbath. These traditions help shape our flourishing. In my opinion, our culture also shapes the opportunities for flourishing because our cultural institutions determine what options we have. For example, gay marriage is a relatively recent thing in the US. Andrew Sullivan, whose work I have shared several times, helped lead the charge for marriage equality. Many gay men opposed marriage as heteronormative and antithetical to gay culture. Andrew’s argument was that he wanted the option, and anyone who didn’t want it didn’t have to take advantage of it. Our cultural institutions (formal and informal) create the set of possibilities for flourishing.
He spends a lot of time talking about questions about marriage and having children because they make good test cases. He says,
You don’t get married or have children because it’s fun or worth it. Having a child is about more than just the accumulated pleasure and pain that comes your way because there is a child in your life. You have a child because it makes your entire life richer even if it makes your bank account poorer. (p.53)
This is lovely, but he also says that for some people having children wouldn’t do that, and it is impossible to know until you have a child. And even then, it is hard to know until you have lived your life. The same goes for getting married. Marriage is about flourishing - it is about finding a life partner who will help you become the person you should be. I know, after 30+ years of marriage, that I would not be the man I have become if I had not been married to my wife for that time. I have learned a lot from her. She is one of the most moral, decent people I know, and I’m better for having been with her. She says she gets some stuff from being with me, but I’m not sure which way the ledger goes on that. But with marriage, it isn’t about a ledger (lucky for me).
On p. 64 he talks about Type 1 and Type 2 experiences. He says Type 1 experiences are “nice the whole time… A day at the beach. A walk in the park.” Whereas Type 2 experiences are hard and force you to grow.
A type 2 experience is one that you never forget, one that makes you stronger, and when you overcome the obstacles in the way, you feel like you’ve accomplished something.
We need a little of both - life can’t be one continuous Type 2 experience or we would die of the stress. But stress is what causes growth… and flourishing.
The book is really thoughtful. He doesn’t say that you should get married or have children - everyone is unique and what leads to flourishing is different for each of us. The important thing is to make decisions with an eye to the goal of flourishing.
I hope you read the book - if you do, let me know what you think.
So with that, willing good for all of you, I present you with the links!
Read
What: WSJ, She Was the Best of Us
Why: I mentioned the Queen’s passing last week. I thought this was a nice memorial worth reading that matched my own thoughts, but from a British citizen’s perspective.
The complete certainty that—whatever the rest of her family might say or do—Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.
Wouldn’t it be nice if some of our politicians could seek to emulate the Queen’s example, instead of the crass style that has been adopted on both sides?
**
What: Task & Purpose, Video of US soldiers training against drone swarm offers glimpse at future of warfare
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-fort-irwin-ntc-drone-swarm/
Why: from the article:
“At sunrise this morning a swarm of 40 quadcopters all equipped with cameras, MILES [multiple integrated laser engagement system], and lethal munition capable launched in advance of 11th ACR’s attack on a prepared defense by 1AD,” Taylor wrote on Twitter. “Drones will be as important in the first battle of the next war as artillery is today.”
Although I am retired, in my dotage I still have an interest in military technology. I trained at the NTC against the 11th ACR many years ago. It was an amazing experience. I remember one debriefing after an exercise during which I got lost and drove in circles in the desert with my aid station, they had a slide showing my journey with the header, “Med PL gets lost” or something like that. It wasn’t a highlight of my career to have that put up in front of all of the other leaders. But I can only imagine the technology they have now. They probably would have a video of me trying to figure out where we were at three in the morning. The header would read, “Med PL gets lost and uses extensive foul language… let’s listen in.”
Drone technology, as I have written before, is changing the future of war. I wrote about the book Kill Chain back in RWL #278. The author makes the argument that drone technology will be essential for maintaining our military edge, especially against an adversary like China that has 3X the number of people it can throw into battle if it comes to that. It’s what they did when we fought them in the Korean War - they threw wave after wave of soldiers, the later waves not necessarily even having weapons, but being expected to pick up the weapons of the dead from the earlier waves.
Drone technology, also as the article notes, can be quite low tech. One of the most powerful things on the battlefield is intelligence. A cheap drone can provide crucial intelligence to a combatant while allowing him to stay hidden and under cover. Fascinating stuff.
**
What: Scroll.in, Suketu Mehta: ‘As goes India, so goes democracy’
https://scroll.in/article/1030219/suketu-mehta-as-goes-india-so-goes-democracy
Why: In the coming challenge between the liberal democracies, largely centered on the West, and the despotic autocracies centered on the Chinese Communist Party, I believe India will play a major role, and it is generally underappreciated in the West. I read somewhere recently, at the current rate of technological adoption, the English-language internet will be dominated by Indian English speakers in the near future. Further, if you read Zeihan’s books (e.g., The End of the World Is Just the Beginning), India has a relatively healthy demographic outlook, unlike China and Russia. It is imperative for the liberal order to continue that India choose liberalism, not despotism. But right now they are going through their own reckoning with authoritarianism, much like we are here in the US.
**
Watch
What: Zeihan on Geopolitics, The Ukrainians Strike Back (9 min)
Why: He summarizes the initial success of the Ukrainian counterattack. I’ve shared his videos before - they are usually low quality productions, but you really just want to listen. (this video was current as of Sep 12)
At about four minutes he allows that the Russians have a long history of getting their asses handed to them, and then bouncing back. But that usually happens in the homeland. IMHO, this is an expeditionary mission - it won’t have the same kind of moral support by the public.
Toward the end, he does say, “This is an end to Russia as a strategic power.”
Worth listening to. I recommend subscribing to his feed.
**
Listen
What: Health Leader Forge, Jason Dupuis, Chief Patient Experience Officer, PM Pediatric Care (90 min)
https://healthleaderforge.blogspot.com/2022/09/jason-dupuis-chief-patient-experience.html
Why: My latest interview is with Jason Dupuis, a 2003 grad of our undergraduate program here at UNH. Jason has been an engaged alumnus for years, but I had never sat down with him to get his whole career story. This is a really great conversation for young leaders - Jason is very candid about his own mistakes and successes (and I think he has done very well for himself, so the successes outweigh the mistakes). We talk about the urgent care part of the healthcare industry, and what drew him to patient experience. He’s fun and funny, and engaging to listen to.
**
What: Not Lost, Postcard from Portugal (22 min)
https://omny.fm/shows/not-lost/postcard-from-portugal
Why: This is a cute podcast about travel, meeting people, and having new experiences (sort of light-weight Type 2 experiences). A centerpiece of this particular episode is his discussion of the Portuguese word “saudade”, which doesn’t have a direct English translation, but means something along the lines of “a deep emotional state of nostalgic or profound melancholic longing for something or someone that one cares for, or loves” (thanks Wikipedia).
**
What: GoodFellows, Live from Kyiv: The War, the Queen, and Europe’s Winter(s) of Discontent (37 min)
Why: As mentioned in my introductory remarks, an excellent analysis featuring the historian Niall Ferguson.
Thanks for reading and see you next week! If you come across any interesting stories, won't you send them my way? I'd love to hear what you think of these suggestions, and I'd love to get suggestions from you. Feel free to drop me a line at mark.bonica@unh.edu , or you can tweet to me at @mbonica .
If you’re looking for a searchable archive, you can see my draft folder here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1jwGLdjsb1WKtgH_2C-_3VvrYCtqLplFO?usp=sharing
Finally, if you find these links interesting, won’t you tell a friend? They can subscribe here: https://markbonica.substack.com/welcome
See you next week!
Mark
“The meaning of life is to find your gift. The purpose of life is to give it away.” – Pablo Picaso