Israel attacks Iran - trying to understand what is happening
RWL #451
Greetings from the LHH![i] TLW and I celebrated our 33rd wedding anniversary last week. Hard to believe she has kept me around that long. Hard to believe we’ve been married 33 years, given I am only in my 30s (ha ha). We did get married young for our generation and had our kids young, too. Now we are not quite old and still able to enjoy being together. I’ve written a few times about the stages of human development and the questions we all have to answer at each stage. I read once that there is no right or wrong about when you get married. But if you get married early, you are answering those questions in conjunction with your spouse, and the answers are influenced by your spouse. You answer them together. If you get married later, you answer them by yourself – at least the early ones. Who I am today is the result of having answered these questions in conjunction with TLW. For me, that has been a good thing. TLW is one of the most morally upright and ethical people I know, and she has always put family first. I’m a better person for having had her in my life.
Pic above is of the Oyster River right by Jackson’s Landing, as the tide is going out. You can see the boat sitting in the muddy bank. At low tide, this part of the river is basically a mud flat with just a trickle of water running down the middle. It’s just enough of a trickle to launch a kayak, though, so that makes it perfect. I went out for a paddle last week with my friend John from jiu-jitsu. It was nice to cross the streams, paddling with John instead of having him choke me. The thing I love about a tidal river is it is always changing.
So, this week I’m sharing some links about Israel’s attack on Iran. Iran has been responsible for much of the instability in the Middle East for some time. These are some of the sources I am paying attention to in order to understand what is going on. This conflict could redefine the Middle East, and by extension have a major impact on the world order. Will it continue to be one based on openness and liberal values or will be descend into regional power centers and autocracy? One thing I did not know, and it will show my ignorance, was that Iran’s population is 90M, almost 10 times the size of Israel. The population of Great Britain is only 60M for reference. The fact that Israel has been able to punish a much larger foe is a testament to the fact that the Regime has done little to advance its society since it came into power.
I would very much like to see the Iranian theocracy fall. I remember the revolution from when I was a kid, and the hostage crisis that sank the Carter administration. The regime was also directly and indirectly responsible for many American service members’ deaths in Iraq. The Iranian people deserve better. But my concern, and it is echoed in some of the analysis, is what comes next if the Israelis, and perhaps we, too, help to make the regime fail? What we have seen over the last 25 years is that when autocratic regimes are knocked out, liberal democracy does not just automatically replace it. Instead we get anarchy, followed often by religious autocracy (think ISIS). What do you think? I have mixed feelings about whether we should be involved. I wish the Israelis success in ending the Iranian nuclear efforts, at a minimum. The rest is complicated.
OK – to the links. Let me know what you think in the comments. As usual, willing good for all of you!
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Read
What: NYT, Despite Close Ties With Iran, Russia Stands Aside as Israel Attacks
Why: Despite having a common perceived enemy – the US and the liberal world order – Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran – the so-called Axis of Resistance - don’t like each other and it’s becoming clear, won’t necessarily come to each other’s aid. That’s good for us.
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Watch
What: WSJ Video: Iran’s Military Arsenal Against Israel (4 min)
Why: Short summary of Iran’s offensive capability and how the Israel is defending, and the US’s role as part of the defense.
Key take away is it comes down to numbers.
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Listen
What: Honestly, Niall Ferguson and Dexter Filkins: Who Will Win the Israel-Iran War? (69 min)
(link)
Why: Nice discussion about whether the US will enter the war to support Israel, and if not, what does this mean? This podcast also really gets at the point that the Axis of Resistance really does not will good for each other. Ferguson also makes the point I stated above – what we see when autocracies fall is chaos, not democracy. We may get worse if the regime falls. But there is also a good discussion about the relevance of this war, in context of Ukraine, and potentially Taiwan - the targets of the Axis of Resistance.
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What: War on the Rocks, The Israeli-Iranian War: How We Got Here & What It Means (28 min)
(link)
Why: War on the Rocks is an excellent source for national security. Some interesting questions about the negotiations, and why they led us here. But also, what about Russia, whom the Iranians have been arming? Why hadn’t Iran been able to rebuild its air defense since Israel mostly wiped it out last year?
[i] The LHH is the Last Homely House. But also, I just want to be super clear that the opinions expressed here are my own, not those of UNH or any related organization, nor are they TLW’s, who frequently tells me I am off my rocker, nor any other person who might be embarrassed by my musings. They are mine, all mine.